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Hurricane Ike Update - 1:00 pm CDT
09/12/08 - 12:20 PM

National Hurricane Center

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Public Advisory

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES… AT 1 PM CDT… 1800 UTC… THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER… INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA… INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS… PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT… 1800Z… THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH… LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES… 270 KM… SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270 MILES… 430 KM… EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH… 19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY… WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK… THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER… BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE… WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH… 165 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE… MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS… ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS… ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES… 195 KM… FROM THE CENTER… AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES… 445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB… 28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET… WITH A FEW SPOTS TO NEAR 25 FEET… ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA… WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION… 27.4 N… 93.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD… WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS… 105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE… 957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Discussion

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY… A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY…THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER…OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…BUT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IKE IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HR…THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO…ALTHOUGH THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS…BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION…AND BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT…COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE…SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER…IKE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER…AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL…WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL…AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL…THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.