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Tropical Storm Josephine - Update 4:00 pm CDT
09/05/08 - 03:00 PM

National Hurricane Center

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Public Advisory

JOSEPHINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH… 13 KM/HR… AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH… 65 KM/HR… WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES… 165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB… 29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION… 16.0 N… 35.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD… NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS… 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE… 1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

Tropical Discussion

JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE STORM. THEREAFTER… THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER… IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE JOSEPHINE MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE SCENARIOS HOLDING JOSEPHINE STEADY STATE.

JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.